Bao Boon Chin

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Two operators alone – Kalshi and Polymarket – topped the combined $1 billion mark in NFL trading activity over the first six days of Week 1, according to numerous measures this week. During the period, Kalshi recorded NFL volume of $983.4 million, according to DeFi Rate, earning the pole position by a large margin. Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs thrashed the Denver Broncos 31-10 on Monday Night Football, capping the largest week for prediction markets ever.

Even before the primetime matchup in Kansas City, it became abundantly clear that the industry would shatter previous marks for weekly activity. The AFC West showdown bolstered the already robust totals. Overall, volume for the week hit a record $15.9 billion, according to Bank of America, up 16% from a week earlier.

The pure-play prediction market-operators, Polymarket and Kalshi, emerged from Week 1 as the clear winners. On one hand, Kalshi’s market share lead narrowed over its competitors, falling to 82% for the week ended 13 September, down from 86% a week earlier.

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The bill prohibits signs, banners, or display panels in arenas, gymnasiums, stadiums and other sports event venues. It also bans advertising on public transport, such as the side panel, exterior or the rear window of buses. The bill imposes a fine of BRL50,000 ($10,000) and a ban on hosting events for up to two years.

The proposal does not explicitly prohibit the display of betting brands on team jerseys, but some city councillors want to include this in the bill.

Clubs fear the measure will jeopardise revenue from betting company sponsorships. Corinthians (Esportes da Sorte), Palmeiras (Sportingbet), and São Paulo (Superbet) alone hold contracts worth BRL350 million annually with betting firms.

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Shortly after his release, Santos had begun working as an influencer for Polymarket. 

Santos’ case represents the most severe among four disciplinary settlements announced by Kalshi, which has faced increasing scrutiny concerning insider knowledge risks and event outcome influence by market participants.

Santos is not the only individual disciplined for trying to game the prediction market system. Ben Midgley, a Republican candidate for the governorship of Maine, admitted purchasing under $1,000 worth of contracts related to his campaign. He accepted a $5,434.30 fine and a three-year suspension.